When Giants Collide — How Trump’s Trade War Policies Could Hurt Small Economies Like Aklan

By: Guillermo Sumbiling

In the high-stakes arena of global trade, the economic decisions of the world’s largest economies often set off chain reactions felt even in the smallest and most remote communities. As former U.S. President Donald Trump signals a return to protectionist trade policies—renewing the rhetoric and strategies of his earlier trade war with China—the world is once again bracing for economic disruption. And while headlines focus on tariffs, manufacturing, and global supply chains, places like the small Philippine province of Aklan quietly brace for the aftershocks.

Aklan, best known for the tourist magnet that is Boracay, is not part of any trade negotiation table. Yet, its economic fate is inevitably tied to global movements. The province’s economy is driven by three main pillars: tourism, agriculture, and remittances from overseas Filipino workers. Each of these sectors stands vulnerable to the medium-term effects of a reignited trade war between economic superpowers.

Trade Wars Are Not Just About Tariffs

The Trump-era trade policies, which included steep tariffs on Chinese goods and a broader shift toward American economic isolationism, disrupted global supply chains and ignited retaliatory measures. A renewed version of these policies could inflame tensions across the Asia-Pacific region, as economies recalibrate and choose sides in a divided global market.

For Southeast Asia, and the Philippines in particular, this could mean reduced trade flows, investment uncertainty, and slower regional growth. The Asia-Pacific’s role as a manufacturing and logistics hub puts it at the center of global trade turbulence. A downturn in regional economic performance could drag down demand for tourism, labor, and agricultural products—three areas vital to Aklan.

Tourism: A Fragile Lifeline

Tourism in Aklan has only just begun to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. A global trade war could be a new setback. In times of economic instability, international travel becomes a luxury, not a necessity. If Trump’s policies dampen the economies of China, South Korea, the U.S., and Europe—Aklan’s key tourist markets—visitor arrivals to Boracay could plummet again. Fewer tourists mean fewer jobs, shuttered businesses, and lower income for thousands of Aklanons who rely on this sector.

OFW Remittances: A Hidden Casualty

Aklan also depends heavily on remittances from overseas Filipino workers, many of whom are employed in countries across the Asia-Pacific or onboard ships tied to global trade. An economic slowdown triggered by protectionist policies would reduce job opportunities abroad, especially in sectors like logistics, hospitality, and construction. As overseas earnings dwindle, so does local household spending, affecting everything from sari-sari stores to school enrollment.

Agriculture: Marginalized in the Margin

While not a major player in exports, Aklan’s agricultural sector isn’t shielded from global economic shifts. Increased prices for imported farm inputs—fertilizers, machinery, and fuel—could follow a disruption in international trade. A weakened peso due to declining investor confidence would only worsen the situation. The result? Lower productivity, reduced income for farmers, and increased food insecurity.

Preparing for the Medium-Term Shock

In the medium term, a prolonged trade conflict could reshape regional alliances and shift global economic gravity. Countries may build stronger intra-Asia trade networks or deepen ties with emerging markets, bypassing traditional U.S.-led systems. For the Philippines—and Aklan by extension—this transition period could mean slower growth, inflationary pressures, and strained fiscal capacity.

What can be done? National and local leaders must prioritize economic resilience. Aklan’s tourism must diversify its markets and shift toward more sustainable, domestic-based travel. The agriculture sector needs investment in self-sufficiency and digital transformation.Start slideshow

Meanwhile, government policies must support displaced OFWs through reintegration programs and local job creation.

Conclusion: The Local Cost of Global Decisions

Donald Trump’s trade war policies, if reintroduced, will not only reshape the world’s economic order—they will also test the resilience of small, developing economies far from the halls of power. Aklan may be a small dot on the map, but its future is entangled in the choices made by global giants. As the world watches the next chapter of U.S.-China economic relations unfold, provinces like Aklan wait—and brace—for impact.