ICSC: Visayas grid alert spotlights persistent issues in the Philippine power sector

QUEZON CITY–– In response to the yellow alert raised over the Visayas grid yesterday, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) highlights a persistent and highly alarming issue in the Philippine power sector: the occurrence of supply shortages even during periods of low electricity demand.

Despite being in the cool season, when demand is typically lower, the Visayas grid continues to experience reliability problems driven largely by unplanned outages among baseload power plants, particularly coal-fired facilities. This underscores a deeper vulnerability in the system, where supply adequacy remains fragile even under relatively favorable demand conditions.

On January 20, the following baseload power plants experienced unplanned outages:

• Therma Visayas, Inc. (TVI) Unit 1 (150 MW), went offline at 11:00 AM

• Panay Energy Development Corp. (PEDC) Unit 2 (83 MW), went offline at 3:00 PM

Prior to January 20, several baseload plants were already offline for scheduled maintenance under the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines’ (NGCP) Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), further constraining available capacity:

• PEDC Unit 3 (150 MW), offline since December 26, 2025 (scheduled until January 24)

• KEPCO SPC Unit 2 (103 MW), offline since January 10 (scheduled until February 3)

• TVI Unit 2 (150 MW), offline since January 11 (scheduled until January 31)

In addition, multiple baseload plants were operating at derated capacity, further reducing effective supply:

• Unified Leyte Geothermal Power Plant: 335 MW available out of 551 MW

• Tongonan Geothermal Power Plant: 100 MW available out of 115 MW

Altogether, these derations, planned, and unplanned outages correspond to the loss of 867 MW of baseload capacity in the Visayas grid yesterday. With peak demand reaching 2,284 MW, this represents around 38% of peak demand, a significant shortfall occurring not during extreme heat or peak consumption, but during a period of relatively low demand.

This situation is not new. Power supply insufficiency has repeatedly emerged across the country, driven by the heavy concentration of capacity in a limited number of large and centralized power plants, particularly coal, which have become increasingly prone to forced outages. Recurring grid alerts are not temporary or seasonal, they are rooted in the country’s overreliance on coal. In turn, this results in a system that struggles to maintain reliability even when demand pressures are modest, and a system where Filipinos continue to face power outages and high electricity costs

To mitigate these risks, energy stakeholders must act with urgency. Strict compliance with the GOMP is essential to minimizing unplanned outages and improving plant reliability. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) should also impose stronger penalties for violations of allowable outage limits to reinforce operational discipline among generators.

Looking ahead, the Philippines must continue moving toward a more flexible and distributed energy system to reduce exposure to sudden outages of large baseload power plants. Diversifying the power mix by scaling up indigenous renewable energy resources such as solar and wind is essential to strengthening energy security, improving system resilience, and reducing exposure to volatile fuel prices. A more diversified and flexible generation portfolio will help ensure reliability even during periods of low electricity demand.